July 18, 2024 – Ice cream is a staple of comfort for consumers in North America. Here we will explore this established ice cream market, covering both dairy and non-dairy versions. Our 360 research reveals market trends and projected growth, key brands, consumer preferences, and product launches, providing valuable insights for brands looking to capitalize on this growing category.
North American Ice Cream Market Size and Trends
The North American ice cream market has been steadily increasing in both sales and launches over the past five years, with projections of continual growth. In the past five years, sales have grown by 4% CAGR, and launches have grown by 1% CAGR. Innova’s ice cream market research additionally predicts a 5% CAGR in sales, and a 1% CAGR in launches over the next five years.
The North American ice cream market ranks third among global regions, representing 16% of global sales. However, the projected growth rate over the next five years is slower compared to other regions, such as Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.
When looking at per capita consumption, the United States ranks third among global nations, while Canada ranks 10th. However, per capita consumption rates are increasing faster in Canada compared to the US.
The US represents the second highest amount of retail ice cream sales compared to other global countries, while Canada ranks 14th.
Companies and Brands in the North American Ice Cream Market
The ice cream market in North America is dominated by a few key players, with Unilever and Froneri (a joint venture between Nestlé and R&R) leading the pack.
Unilever, one of the world’s largest FMCG businesses, boasts a range of brands including Ben & Jerry’s, Magnum, Carte d’Or, and Breyers, all of which have significant presence in both the dairy and non-dairy ice cream segment.
Froneri, the world’s second-largest ice cream manufacturer, operates in 60 markets and produces a wide range of local brands, including the iconic Häagen-Dazs.
While these global giants dominate the market, regional players like Blue Bell (US) and Danone (with its dairy-free brand So Delicious) are also making significant contributions. Blue Bell, the third-largest ice cream company in the US, is known for its wide range of flavors and its recent focus on premiumization. Danone, with its So Delicious brand, offers a variety of plant-based options, including almond, cashew, coconut, oat, and soy milk-based ice creams.
The ice cream market also sees a strong presence of private label brands, particularly in supermarkets, which are a major outlet for purchasing this category. These private label offerings are often a more affordable option for consumers, and they are increasingly gaining popularity.
Consumer Insights in the North American Ice Cream Market
Ice cream is a popular consumer purchase in North America. In the past twelve months, 54% of US consumers, and 61% of Canadian consumers have purchased dairy ice cream. However, 14% of both US and Canadian consumers purchased non-dairy ice cream over the same period, demonstrating an opportunity for growth in the market.
While older generations and lower-income households are more likely to purchase dairy-based ice cream, millennials and higher-income consumers are driving the growth of the non-dairy segment.
20% of US consumers have increased their intake of ice cream over the past year, while Canadians were more likely to maintain their rate of intake. US consumers also consume both dairy and non-dairy ice cream more frequently than Canadians. Ice cream trend research also shows that an evening snack is the typical moment of consumption for North American consumers.
The primary reason North American consumers cite for consuming ice cream is taste and indulgence, followed by happiness and relaxation. Real ingredients and the absence of artificial flavors and colors are important factors influencing purchase decisions.
Consumers are also increasingly interested in health-related claims, with low or reduced sugar being a key driver. In the US, functional claims such as high in/source of protein and high in/source of fiber are important, while in Canada traditional and local claims are more enticing. Vanilla, chocolate, strawberry, and caramel are top flavor preferences for both dairy and non-dairy ice cream, while mango is a popular choice among non-dairy ice cream consumers in Canada.
Ice Cream New Product Launch Trends
Ice cream launches rates have fluctuated over the past five years, with notable spikes in non-dairy launches in 2021, and dairy launches in 2022. Around 80% of total ice cream launches in North America are dairy. Additionally, the US represents around 90% of ice cream launches in the region.
A key ice cream trend is the increasing focus on environmental and human claims, with a rise in vegan, plant-based, and ethical packaging claims. This shift reflects growing consumer interest in sustainability and ethical sourcing.
In terms of ingredients, oat milk alternatives have surged in non-dairy ice cream, seen in 21% of products now compared to 8% in 2019. Coconut milk is the most popular dairy alternative ingredient in non-dairy ice cream. For dairy ice cream, richer ingredients like whey, buttermilk, sweet cream butter, and milk powder are also gaining popularity, indicating a move towards more indulgent textures and flavors.
Traditional flavors like chocolate, vanilla, and strawberry remain dominant, but there’s a growing trend towards novelty flavors like cake and cookie. This suggests an opportunity to expand flavor offerings by combining exotic flavors with traditional ones, particularly appealing to younger consumers.
What’s Next in Ice Cream Market Trends?
North American dairy ice cream purchasing penetration is 58%, and non-dairy ice cream is 14%. Penetration can increase further for dairy ice cream, taking share from other desserts, and there is opportunity to grow the non-dairy ice cream consumer base, especially younger generations, through claims of indulgence and claims related to animal and environmental ethics.
Non-dairy ice cream purchasing skews to Millennials with higher income. Brands can cater more to Generation Z by emphasizing the plant-based benefits tied to environmental impact and enhance textures. They can also incentivize repeat purchases by offering indulgent flavors and playing up combinations of indulgence and health.
Real ingredients and no artificial flavors or colors claims are the most influential to consumers; indulgence ranks third, while low sugar is sixth. Brands can increase indulgent textures and other claims while being transparent about ingredients and sourcing. Sustainable and clean ingredients are a key concern for many consumers, especially Generation Z, yet indulging is still the primary motivator to consume ice cream.
This article is based on our report, “Now & Next in Dairy & Dairy Alternative Ice Cream in the US & Canada
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